Welcome to the third annual edition of my Preseason College Football AP Top 25 rankings column. I list off the teams ranked too high, too low, or just right off the prior season’s AP Top 25 preseason poll.

I’ll hyperlink to my 2023 piece on Medium for you all to check that out. Before we get underway, it’s time to take my victory laps and my lumps on last year’s column. This will only focus on the AP rankings.

Where Fitz was right in 2023

• Too High (first poll): LSU (No. 5), Penn State (No. 7), Tennessee (No. 12)
• Too Low (first poll): Florida State (No. 8), Oregon (No. 15)
• Barely escaped the Too High Category: Notre Dame (No. 13)

LSU and Penn State, I’m sorry that my prognostication skills were on point. Florida State and Oregon, my faith in you was rewarded.

And look at Notre Dame!! Basically the same ranking at the end of the season from their original No. 13!

There were several hits but now we must cover the misses.

Where Fitz was wrong in 2023

• Too High (first poll): Texas (No. 11)
• Too Low (first poll): Wisconsin (No. 19)
• Just Right: TCU (No. 17)

I had more incorrect predictions compared to the first column in 2022. TCU is a team I really should have tempered expectations with and the same applies to the Badgers.

However, Texas is the one that irks me. Every year, they seem to always be higher up in the poll. After however many years of irrelevancy, they finally hit the jackpot! I guess it only takes one time to look like a genius.

Now then, let’s see how good or bad 2024’s predictions are.

Too High

No. 5: Alabama

Let me put out this disclaimer: Alabama will be good. I’m just not sure how quickly new head Kaleb DeBoar will start stacking up victories. I wouldn’t want to take over for Nick Saban, and it’s a tall task following the mass exodus of talent from the Tide’s roster in January. I’d keep ‘Bama in the Top 15, but it’s hard to say Top 5 – regardless of what they return.

No. 6: Ole Miss

I don’t buy it. They lost some talent, and I feel like if there’s a team here that is going to wildly underperform, it’ll be the Rebels. This is my strongest gut feeling on the ‘Too High’ list.

No. 7: Notre Dame

Copy and paste what I’ve said about Texas last year and modify it a little. Until they actually produce better results, the Fighting Irish are WAY too high. Watch me whiff on this like I did on the Longhorns

No. 9: Michigan

This isn’t even my hatred of Michigan as a fan raised in an Ohio State household. The defending National Champions saw Jim Harbaugh bolt for the Chargers, lost their quarterback and other big-time talent, and what’s that? A NOTICE OF ALLEGATIONS?!?!

Yeah, they should have been ranked in the high teens at best. Being realistic, how do you go out as Sherron Moore with all of that hanging over your program’s head? It doesn’t seem realistic to have Michigan in the Top 10.

Too Low

No. 10: Florida State

The CFP committee should have sent Alabama home but NOOOOOO!!! The SEC will now forever have a team make it into all past and future iterations of the College Football Playoff. Florida State was unbeaten, and I will double down on the Seminoles!

No. 17: Oklahoma State

I think the Cowboys are at least Playoff qualifiers. I have no hard evidence, but when in doubt, trust your gut.

No. 23: USC

I am shocked to be writing this for the Trojans. I like Lincoln Riley, and I think he can still produce good results on the west coast. I don’t know how they’ll fare in the Big Ten, but if there’s a surprise candidate, it’s USC.

Just right

No. 14: Clemson

I think Clemson is a really good program. I like Dabo Swinney as much as I hate him.

Why do I hate him? His stubborn refusal to use the transfer portal and not let his program go into the doldrums. Still, I think this ranking is fair and reflects a middle of the road status among the voters. Clemson is going to be really good or mediocre. There’s no gray area.

I can’t wait to revisit all of this next year.